Monday, June 11, 2012

(My latest for Asia Times) Osprey a new tinderbox on Okinawa

Osprey a new tinderbox on Okinawa
Okinawan anger at the planned deployment of V-22 Ospreys to the United States' Futenma air base has been directed at both Tokyo and Washington, with islanders accusing the mainland government of "discrimination" in its failure to scale down US military operations. Claiming the tilt-rotor aircraft are accident prone and threaten densely populated Ginowan City, some Okinawans are agitating for independence. - Kosuke Takahashi (Jun 11, '12)




Osprey a new tinderbox on Okinawa
By Kosuke Takahashi

TOKYO - On May 23, 1988, in Arlington, Texas, Bell Helicopter unveiled with much fanfare a new combo-aircraft; a fixed-wing plane that could climb and hover like a helicopter, but also rotate its giant propellers forward and fly like an airplane.

On that day, Peter Van Sant, then correspondent for CBS Evening News with Dan Rather, reported that the never-seen-before plane was a "a revolutionary new aircraft" that was the latest "future shock". He expected the plane would carry commuters to Washington or Boston from downtown Manhattan, as it could take off and land in downtown business districts, reducing travel times.

It was called the V-22.

"By the year 2000, there could be a market of five to eight million passengers annually," a company spokesperson at Bell Helicopter predicted at the ceremony.

Twenty-four years later, the V-22 has yet to be used as a commuter aircraft between New York and Boston. Instead, across the Pacific, the Bell-Boeing MV-22 Osprey tilt-rotor aircraft is becoming the next tinderbox issue on Japan's southernmost subtropical island prefecture, Okinawa.

Ospreys over Futenma
Plans to deploy 12 Osprey aircraft to US Marine Corps (USMC) Air Station Futenma in Okinawa prefecture have emerged as a fresh flashpoint between Okinawa residents and Tokyo and Washington.

How the national governments handle the islanders' sensitivities over the Osprey could prove critical for the future stability and preservation of the Japan-US alliance.

The dispute over the MV-22 erupted on June 7 when the Okinawa chapter of the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) demanded that newly appointed Defense Minister Satoshi Morimoto resign over remarks related to the safety of the Osprey deployment.

The Japanese Defense Ministry had asked the US government to conduct a thorough investigation prior to the aircraft's planned deployment to Futenma, following a MV-22 crash in April in Morocco which killed two marines. However, Morimoto said at a press conference on June 5, "It would be ideal to receive all the results [from the US] on the investigations into the accident prior to the deployment, but there is a chance that might not happen."

"Does the [Japanese] government view the Okinawans as Japanese!" Chobin Zukeran, a DPJ lawmaker representing Okinawa, shouted tearfully at a press conference in Naha City on Okinawa. "Don't think Okinawans are stupid!" said Zurekan, who appeared in his shirt sleeves to emphasize his anger at the new defense minister, who was appointed on June 4.

Futenma air base is located in the heart of densely populated Ginowan City. In August 2004, a US Marines CH-53 military helicopter crashed into a university building in the city, causing no serious damage or injuries but causing a major international incident.

"Defense Minster Morimoto's remarks show nothing but contempt for Okinawans," the chapter said in an emergency statement. "There is no more room to reach a compromise between Okinawa and the Japanese government, and this should be taken as all-out confrontation.

"It is unacceptable to increase the burden borne by the people of Okinawa prefecture anymore, and this can't help but spark the public opinion that Okinawa should become independent," the statement also said.

As if in damage control, the Japanese Ministry of Defense announced on June 8 that a US investigation into the crash in Morocco had found no mechanical flaws in the MV-22. However, the ministry admitted that the investigation was ongoing and had yet to specify the crash's cause.

Although this year marks the 40th anniversary of Okinawa's reversion to Japan from US control, US military bases still occupy almost a fifth of the main Okinawa island. While Okinawa only accounts for 0.4% of Japan's land area, 74% of all US bases are concentrated there.

The US plans to deploy Ospreys to Futenma this year as part of an ongoing replacement of the USMC's ageing CH-46 Sea Knight helicopter fleet.

However, this comes amid a decade-long deadlock over plans to relocate Futenma air station to Henoko, Nago, in northern Okinawa by constructing a new sea-based replacement facility off Camp Schwab.

Local governments, supported by the majority of Okinawans, have demanded the immediate closure and transfer of Futenma outside of the prefecture, but it seems the opposite is happening.

In April, the Japanese government agreed with the US to pay refurbishment costs for the Futenma base until the sea-based replacement facility was constructed on the north of the island. But Okinawans are worried that maintenance and repair work on Futenma will mean its continued use.

For Okinawans, the plans to deploy the Osprey at Futenma strengthens perceptions that the air base will become a permanent fixture.

In an apparent attempt to ease tensions, the US and Japanese governments are reportedly considering temporarily stationing the Osprey at Iwakuni Air Base in Yamaguchi prefecture in July, and demonstrating their safety by conducting test flights there. The MV-22 would then be deployed to Futenma by mid-August, the Asahi Shimbun reported on June 9.

An alternative plan to transport the Ospreys in pieces by sea to the Naha Military Port on Okinawa as early as July, with the aircraft to be assembled there, was aborted as the Naha City Council unanimously adopted a resolution against and Naha Mayor Takeshi Onaga voiced his opposition.

"Any logic that does not understand the Okinawan mind and our history won't be accepted," Onaga said at a press conference on June 6. "Although we are requesting the easing of the burden, they are bringing about excessive burdens on us further. There is no need to consider the deployment."

According to a joint survey conducted by the Asahi Shimbun and the Okinawa Times in April ahead of the 40th anniversary of Okinawa's reversion to Japanese sovereignty, 50% of residents of Okinawa Prefecture said "discrimination by the mainland" was the reason why the scale of US military bases in the prefecture remains unchanged.

"The opinion that mainland discrimination is behind the lack of reduction of US military bases in Okinawa has spread since around 2010, when then Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama broke his promise to relocate the US Marine Corps Air Station Futenma outside of the prefecture," the Asahi Shimbun concluded.

The widow-maker
The MV-22 Osprey tilt-rotor vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) transport aircraft was once called the "widow-maker" due to a series of accidents during its development.

Development of the MV-22 got off to rocky start with the deaths of 23 marines in two crashes during testing more than 12 years ago. A US Air Force version of the tilt-rotor aircraft, the special mission CV-22, crashed in Afghanistan in April 2010, killing three service members and one civilian contractor.

It is this safety record that concerns Okinawa prefectural government and local residents, leading them to fiercely oppose this planned deployment.

The Pentagon has dismissed such safety concerns.

"The MV-22 is among the safest aircraft in the Marine Corps' inventory," Captain Richard K Ulsh, USMC public affairs officer told Asia Times Online. "Including the mishap on April 11, 2012 in Morocco, since the Marine Corps resumed flight operations in October 2003, the MV-22B has demonstrated a safety record that is consistently better than USMC averages while conducting military training, humanitarian assistance missions, and combat operations in very challenging environments."

"According to Naval Safety Center records, since the Marine Corps resumed flight operations in October of 2003 through April 11 2012, the MV-22B has demonstrated a safety record that is consistently better than USMC averages," Ulsh said.

According to Ulsh, MV-22's mishap rate, determined by the number of mishaps over a period of 100,000 flight hours, is the second lowest among the five aircraft as described below.

MV-22: 1.93
CH-46: 1.11
CH-53E: 2.35
CH-53D: 4.51
AV-8B: 6.76
ALL USMC: 2.45

"The Marine Corps views the MV-22 as a highly capable, reliable and safe aircraft," Ulsh said.

Latent anti-US base sentiment is likely to rise in coming months as local elections approach. Naha's mayoral election is scheduled for November, and there is speculation that low approval ratings for Yoshihiko Noda's government, currently sitting at just around 20%, could soon spur a general election.

Major political parties and prefectural chapters in Okinawa are highly likely to use the votes to campaign for the relocation of the Futenma facility outside of the prefecture as well as a halt to the V-22 deployment.

"It was unavoidable that the deployment of Osprey would become a source of friction and conflict," Japanese military analyst Toshiyuki Shikata told Asia Times Online. "Without the accident in Morocco, the situation would have been better. Okinawans vividly remember the crash of the crash of a marine helicopter into Okinawa International University. The US and Japanese governments will now be forced to delay the deployment later than originally scheduled. A cooling off period is needed."

Kosuke Takahashi is a Tokyo-based Japanese journalist. Besides Asia Times Online, he also writes for Jane's Defence Weekly as Tokyo correspondent. His twitter is @TakahashiKosuke

(Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)

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